2009년 01월 22일

Nazi 'Behind Brazil's Twin Town'

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/5/20090122/twl-nazi-behind-brazil-s-twin-town-3fd0ae9.html


A Nazi death camp doctor is behind the unusual number of twins born in a small Brazilian farming town, according to a new book.

 

Nazi 'Behind Brazil's Twin Town'

 Josef Mengele - known as the Angel Of Death - was commissioned by Adolf Hitler to artificially increase the Aryan birthrate in order to create a master race. He earned his nickname for his cruel human experiments at the Nazi concentration camp Auschwitz, where he focused his research on twins. Now Argentine historian Jorge Camarasa believes Mengele continued his genetic experiments in South America, where he fled at the end of the Second World War.


 In the Brazilian town of Candido Godoi, one in five pregnancies produces twins, often with blond hair and blue eyes.

A road sign at the edge of the town welcomes visitors to a "Farming Community and Land of the Twins" where they can visit the "House of Twins" museum. Locals claim the Nazi physician made repeated visits there from his home in Paraguay in the 60s, first posing as a vet but then offering medical treatment to women.

 The birthrate of twins in the German farming community began to rise soon after, Mr Camarasa says in his book Mengele: The Angel of Death in South America. "I think Candido Godoi may have been Mengele's laboratory, where he finally managed to fulfill his dreams of creating a master race of blond-haired, blue-eyed Aryans," the Daily Telegraph quotes the author as saying. He goes on: "There is testimony that he attended women, followed their pregnancies, treated them with new types of drugs and preparations, that he talked of artificial insemination in human beings."

One local farmer reportedly told Mr Camarasa: "He told us he was a vet. He asked about illnesses we had among our animals, and told us not to worry, he could cure them. He appeared a cultured and dignified man." Another farmer, Leonardo Boufler, said: "He said he could carry out artificial insemination of cows and humans, which we thought impossible as in those days. It was unheard of." A former mayor and town doctor has also tried to solve the mystery of the town's twins, according to the Telegraph.

 Anencia Flores da Silva says he has interviewed hundreds of people and came across one figure who cropped up repeatedly - an itinerant medic calling himself Rudolph Weiss. Dr da Silva said: "In the testimonies we collected we came across women who were treated by him, he appeared to be some sort of rural medic who went from house to house."

by 저하늘넘어 | 2009/01/22 23:21 | Around the World | 트랙백 | 덧글(0)

2009년 01월 20일

Few Opposed to Rick Warren Giving Inaugural Prayer

http://christianpost.com/Society/Politics/2009/01/poll-few-opposed-to-rick-warren-giving-inaugural-prayer-20/index.html



Despite the "big" controversy fueled by the media about Rick Warren giving the inaugural prayer on Tuesday, few Americans seem to know about the selection, let alone disapprove of it.

More than half of Americans (52 percent) say they don't know enough about the decision to have an opinion, according to a Gallup Poll released on Monday. Among Americans that do have an opinion, only nine percent disapproved of the decision to have Warren give the invocation at the inaugururation.

In contrast, 39 percent approved of President-elect Barack Obama's choice of the "Purpose Driven" pastor.

Since December when it was announced Warren would give the invocation, media reports have highlighted the outrage and frustration of gay rights supporters over the decision.

Critics of Warren pointed out that he had supported the California measure Proposition 8 that defined marriage as between one man and one woman and essentially overturned the state's short-lived gay marriage ruling by the California Supreme Court.

Gay rights supporters held protests at Warren's Saddleback Church in Orange County, Calif. after Proposition 8 won the majority of votes. They again staged a demonstration this past Sunday in a last attempt to stop Warren from giving the inaugural prayer.

But despite these stories of anger and protest, the Gallup poll shows that less than a tenth of Americans in general disapprove of the megachurch pastor's upcoming role in the inauguration.

Even most Democrats and self-described liberals support Obama's choice of Warren. Among Democrats, 37 percent approved of Obama's selection compared to 10 percent that disapproved. A similar proportion was seen among liberals, 39 percent approving and 16 percent disapproving.

As expected, the approval rating was much higher among Republicans and conservatives.

Nearly half of Republicans (48 percent) approved of Obama's decision to have Warren give the inaugural prayer, compared to 9 percent that disapproved. The number was slightly higher among conservatives with 50 percent approving and 7 percent disapproving.

The Gallup Poll report concluded, "News media accounts of negative reactions to President-elect Barack Obama's decision to select Rick Warren to deliver the Inaugural prayer appear to reflect more of the vocal positions of interest groups than an opinion that is shared by the majority of the American public."

The results are based on telephone interviews with 1,046 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 16-17, 2009.

by 저하늘넘어 | 2009/01/20 23:10 | I Believe In GOD!! | 트랙백 | 덧글(0)

2009년 01월 09일

Inside the Head of David Cagigal, CITO, Alliant Energy Corporation

http://www.leaditmagazine.com/issues/200810/david-cagigal.aspx



Inside the Head of David Cagigal, CITO, Alliant Energy Corporation
Email article

THE HUMAN ENERGIZER Whether he's shaking hands and personally greeting everyone in sight – from members of the custodial staff to the highest-ranking corporate officers – or engaging in friendly, but fierce, competition with friends on the golf course, there's one thing that seems to define David Cagigal: energy. Because energy is not just what he does, it's who he is. It seeps from his pores. It emanates from his hands. Everyone he encounters, every project he handles, gets a jolt of electricity – a boost – as a result. And Alliant Energy Corporation reaps the benefits.

To get a better sense of what powers this successful IT executive, Lead IT posed a few questions about his background, interests, inspirations, and philosophies. The results were ... in a word: energizing.

Q. What job prior to Alliant best prepared you for your leadership role as it is today?
A. I went to Atlanta in 1979 with Amoco Container (a spin-off from the oil and gas division), which at the time was making McDonald's hinged containers. Basically, anything out of foam you could think of: plates, bowls, you name it. There were 12 of us who went down from Chicago to start up a $50-million company.
It was very challenging for me. I'd never had a leadership position and had just finished my MBA. I had to hire my own staff, build the computer room, establish a network, and transfer the order processing system in less than a year. It was challenging, as basically I was thrown into the deep water to see if I could swim. Then we acquired another company and went from three manufacturing plants to nine, bumping us from $50 to $200 million. To make it even more difficult, in addition to the acquisition and the challenge of starting a new business, was the convergence of technology. If you remember, the invention of the PC was in 1980. I was building my first local network when I saw my first e-mail traffic in 1980. I said, "Who would ever use that? More importantly, whom would I send it to if I was the only one who had a mailbox?" I learned a lot about working with people, vendors, contracts, building networks, and computer systems. I think it underscored the word "change" for me and reinforced the importance of interdependence between my fellow executives to make this successful.

To add another layer of complexity, my third child was born in April 1980, at the same time we went live with our new system.

Q. On a professional level, who inspires you?
A. A man by the name of Dan Delgrosso, a former General Manager of IT at Amoco, who was responsible for about 1,000 people in the Infrastructure division. He became representative of many other mentors in my life, in that he believed in me more than I did. I thought I knew what I was capable of doing, but Dan knew I could handle more. I've always advanced in my career because of the potential others saw in me. When I was asked to go to Atlanta, I agreed because I really didn't know what I was saying "yes" to. If they had told me exactly what I would've been doing month-to-month, I probably wouldn't have done it or would've had great concerns. Having mentors (who have more confidence in you than you do) is what helps you grow, and that encourages me. And guess what? I try to be that to others.

Q. What's the hardest thing about being a chief information technology officer?
A. Alignment of strategy and values is not easy, but is essential. I'm so enamored with the values of this company, and when I first came to Alliant Energy, understanding the culture and the values were the most important yet toughest challenge for me. They've helped me behave in a way that I can now be consistent with others. We want to service our three constituents: shareowners, consumers, and employees. From the shareowner point of view, we need to be prosperous; from the consumer point of view, we need to be reliable; and from the employee point of view, we need to provide opportunity. We're very proud of our five core values, which are hanging up for all our employees to see: 1) Safety – We're in a life-threatening business, not only regarding consumer safety but to make sure the partners with whom we work are safe; 2) Environmental – We strive to be good, trusted corporate citizens and stewards of our operating environment in our local communities; 3) Ethics – This defines how Alliant Energy and its family of companies treat employees, customers, suppliers, and the communities in which we live and work; 4) Diversity – We welcome all individuals' talents, ideas, and different perspectives that make Alliant Energy the employer of choice; connect us to all the communities we serve; and make us a stronger, more successful company; and 5) Efficiency – We need constant improvement.

Q. How is technology impacting the future of Alliant Energy?
A. Utilities need to start introducing a smart meter into homes to provide consumers with the intelligence and feedback to conserve. You either consume at the rate you can pay or consume at the rate you need, but you need to be aware of what you're consuming and its cost, which is what the smart meter is all about. This also continues to align the business strategy that our CEO has in mind for us. Then IT brings to the table the richness of the computing and network technology opportunities we have around advanced metering infrastructure and the intelligent grid. Our vision for the future is to offer better information to our customers so they can make informed decisions regarding their energy consumption after we've implemented incentive pricing. Further in the future, the intelligent grid will provide for net billing, where a customer can contribute to the grid and their fuel cells or solar panels, and get credit against their consumption. This will provide a win-win for everyone regarding the environment, conservation, and economics.

Q. Is IT pursuing environmentally conscious alternatives for technology?
A. We are a utility company [smiles], so, yes, we're certainly keeping an eye on this. We've started with our data centers, virtualized servers, storage, PCs and monitors, and the overall reduction of power consumption. Monitor manufacturers have reduced energy by converting to flat screens that consume less power, and we'd like to see the PC turn to Energy Star status (similar to home appliances), as well, which is occurring. We're also examining our work processes and behaviors. During our flood recoveries, we couldn't believe how many employees were still having their paychecks or pay advices delivered to their desks. We had to adopt other means due to our offices being closed in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. We offer direct deposits, as well as online viewing of pay stubs. Some companies don't offer a choice: simply no paper. We still have a culture of people hanging on to paper.

Q. Who's the most impressive person you've ever met?
A. Bill Harvey (Alliant CEO), for having the courage to stand at the podium in front of 100 directors and tell everyone why he took the job after already having become a very wealthy man. He took the job because he believed in us, and he knew that he could turn the company into a profitable business again – which he has. Now, many of us feed off of his "can do" attitude.

Q. How do you self-educate?
A. I do a lot of reading: Wall Street Journal, trade magazines, CIO magazine, Fortune, Information Week online. I get paid for doing two things: communicating and exercising my judgment. When you read information, you have to ask yourself, "Why do I believe what I'm reading?" You need to understand the process of discerning certain information. The Internet sometimes is perceived as an authentic source of information, but we all know it requires greater evaluation skills than the formal media who edits and validates material that it provides. Do you believe their opinions and slant? The larger issue is the material NOT presented to you, accompanied by your desire to know. Where will you get it? This process forces you to examine things more thoroughly and develop the art of questioning. Business intelligence comes from asking questions. Our data is a goldmine for us, and everyone needs to ask more questions to validate more thoroughly all the information that's available to us.

Q. What early career advice would you have for anyone getting into IT today?
A. At Alliant Energy, every new employee should know two things: the strategic purpose and the five values that make Alliant unique. Understanding the governance process, technology, plans to budget, and building the business case are just a few things we review with new employees. The most important thing, however, is to understand how the relationship between the employer and employee can mutually benefit each other.

Q. If you could immediately impact the world to be a better place, where would you start?
A. I'd provide affordable energy resources to all.

Q. What's your poison when it comes to personal technology?
A. My BlackBerry; it's my connection to what's going on.

Q. What was your first job?
A. Working in a small restaurant with my dad while I was in high school. I worked as a cashier, waiter, and dishwasher. My dad always taught me to do things right the first time. Example: I cleaned off a countertop and took dirty dishes back to be washed. When I came back empty-handed, my dad told me to economize, be productive, and not waste any steps (as in, why I didn't bring out the clean dishes after dropping off the dirty ones). Lessons I practice still today.

Q. Your life is your life because …
A. My family and being married to Sande with our four children is why I do what I do (though I do get an adrenaline rush at work). My children have watched me enjoy my job over the years, and two of my sons even work in IT, so everyday I try to serve as a good role model of someone who loves his career and manages it well.

Q. Where do you feel most at home?
A. In my kitchen. I get home around 6:30PM, and then I reflect on the day. My wife doesn't particularly like this [smiles], but at work I don't get much desk time, as I try to have more face time with my employees. It's when I get home that I'll spend time on the laptop to catch up, but during work I like to have the human interactions. A dilemma we face in the workplace today is a lack of face time. The younger generation doesn't value it as much as the older generation does. At Alliant, we're doing things to encourage more face-to-face interaction and social networking. We'll need to balance this with the younger generation in the digital world.

Q. Favorite movie?
A. Casablanca. A classic.

Q. Hobby?
A. I enjoy playing a challenging round of golf with friends.

by 저하늘넘어 | 2009/01/09 00:19 | Economy | 트랙백 | 덧글(0)

2009년 01월 09일

Obama warns of dire consequences without stimulus


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090108/ap_on_go_pr_wh/obama_economy

WASHINGTON – President-elect Barack Obama said Thursday the recession could "linger for years" unless Congress pumps unprecedented sums from Washington into the economy, making his highest-profile case yet on an issue certain to define and dominate his early presidency.

"I don't believe it's too late to change course, but it will be if we don't take dramatic action as soon as possible," Obama said in a speech set to be delivered at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va., outside Washington. Excerpts from his prepared text were released in advance by his transition team.

It was the fourth day in a row that Obama has made a pitch for a huge infusion of taxpayer dollars to revive the sinking economy he will inherit from President George W. Bush.

Obama's events have increasingly taken on the trappings and air of the presidency, with the speech — coming a full 12 days before he takes over at the White House — a particularly showy move. Presidents-elect typically stick to naming administration appointments and otherwise staying in the background during the transition period between Election Day and Inauguration Day, but Obama has clearly made the calculation that a nation anxious about its economic outlook and eager to bid farewell to Bush needs to hear from him differently and more frequently.

"A bad situation could become dramatically worse," Obama said, painting a dire picture — including double-digit unemployment and $1 trillion in lost economic activity — that recalled the days of the Great Depression in the 1930s.

Indeed, the economic news is grim.

Consumers and companies are folding under the negative forces of a collapsed housing market, a global credit crunch and the worst financial crisis since the 1930s. The recession, which started in December 2007, already is the longest in a quarter-century.

A report that came out the same day as Obama's speech showed that the number of people continuing to draw jobless benefits unexpectedly rose sharply to the highest level since November 1982, demonstrating the troubles the unemployed are having in finding new jobs.

And unemployment figures due out Friday are expected to show that the U.S. lost a net total of 500,000 jobs in December. If accurate, that would bring 2008's total job losses to 2.4 million, the first annual job loss since 2001 and the highest since 1945, though the number of jobs has more than tripled since then.

Speaking a day after the release of a stunning new estimate — that the federal budget deficit will reach an unprecedented $1.2 trillion this year, nearly three times last year's record — Obama acknowledged some sympathy with those who "might be skeptical" of the stimulus. Vast sums already have been spent or committed by Washington in an attempt — largely unsuccessful so far — to get credit, the lifeblood of the American economy, flowing freely once again.

Such statements are coded to appeal to budget hawks in both parties, whom Obama wants to win over so that approval of a package draws wide, bipartisan support in the Democratic-led Congress.

To answer their concerns, he promised to allow funding only for what works. He also pledged a new level of transparency about where the money is going. A day earlier, he promised to tackle the out-of-control fiscal problem posed by Social Security and Medicare entitlement programs and named a special watchdog to clamp down on all federal programs.

Obama made broader arguments, too, saying that the private sector, typically the answer, cannot do what is needed now.

"At this particular moment, only government can provide the short-term boost necessary to lift us from a recession this deep and severe," he said.

Obama's transition team and Democratic congressional leaders are working daily to hammer out the still-evolving package, expected to total nearly $800 billion. The initial hope had been to have a new stimulus package approved by Congress in time for Obama to sign it upon taking office on Jan. 20. That timeline has slipped considerably, into at least mid-February if not later.

The package is expected to include tax cuts for businesses and middle-class workers, money to help cash-starved states with Medicaid programs and other operating costs, and a huge share for infrastructure building, investments in energy efficiency and a rebuilding of the information technology system for health care. Much of the latter portions of the plan are aimed at what Obama likes to talk about as the need for "reinvestment" and not just "recovery."

Obama also promised action to address the economy's ills beyond the package, such as tackling the massive wave of home foreclosures many experts expect, preventing the failure of financial institutions, rewriting financial regulations and keeping accountable the "Wall Street wrongdoers" who engage in risky investing.

by 저하늘넘어 | 2009/01/09 00:17 | Economy | 트랙백 | 덧글(0)

2009년 01월 08일

2009 Will Be Very, Very Bleak

 

Nouriel Roubini, 01.08.09, 12:01 AM EST

A detailed look at the current recession.

pic

It is clear that 2008 was not a very good year, and it is official that the current recession started in December 2007. So how far are we into this recession that has already lasted longer than the previous two (the 1990 and 2001 recessions lasted eight months each)? I believe the U.S. economy is only half way through a recession that will be the longest and most severe in the post-war period. U.S. gross domestic product will continue to contract throughout 2009 for a cumulative output loss of 5% and a recession that will last close to two years.

Let us look at the picture in detail:

 

Personal Consumption
The resilient U.S. consumer started to give up the ghost in the third quarter of 2008, when for the first time in almost two decades, personal consumption contracted. With personal consumption making up over two-thirds of aggregate demand, the outlook for the U.S. consumer is at the center of the dynamics that will play out in the real economy in 2009.

In my view, personal consumption will continue to contract quite sharply throughout 2009 as a result of negative wealth effects from housing and equity market losses, the disappearance of home equity withdrawal from the second half of 2008, mounting job losses, tighter credit conditions and high debt servicing ratios (the debt to income ratio went from 70% in the 90s, to 100% in 2000, to 140% now). This retrenchment of the U.S. consumer will result in a painful rebalancing in the economy that will eventually restore the savings rate of a decade ago.

The wealth losses for households related to the fall in home prices are roughly $4 trillion so far, and are clearly bound to increase further as home prices continue to fall--eventually reaching the $6-8 trillion range (compatible with a 30-40% fall in home prices peak to trough). With a negative wealth effect of 6 cents on the dollar, the reduction in personal consumption could amount to a whopping $500 billion. And negative wealth effect from fall in equity prices--on the wake of a bleak 2009 for corporate profits--will also contribute to the contraction in personal consumption by an estimated $100 billion (compatible with a 25% contraction in the stock markets).


Housing Sector
The fourth year of housing recession is well on course.

Total housing starts have plunged from the 2.3 million seasonally adjusted annual rate peak of January 2006 all the way to the 625,000 SAAR of November 2008 (the last data point available), an all-time low for the time-series that started in January 1959. Single-family starts built for sale are down 75% from their Q4 2005 peak.

On the demand side, new single-family home sales are down 65% from their July 2005 peak. Both demand and supply of homes are therefore still falling very sharply, which does not bode well for inventories. Inventories are the mortal enemy of prices for any goods-producing sector, including housing.

Starts need to fall substantially below sales so that the excess supply in the housing market is reabsorbed. Inventories persist at record highs and the gap between one-family starts (for sale) and one-family sales is at levels that cannot promote a fast work-off of inventories. To put these numbers in perspective, compare this with a measure of vacant homes for-sale-only. Vacant homes for-sale-only were at 2.2 million in Q3 2008, an all-time high. In the decade between 1985 and 1995, it oscillated around 1 million units on average and 1.3 million units between 2001 and 2005. This implies that we have to deal with an excess supply that ranges between 0.9 and 1.2 million units, of which roughly 85% are single-family structures.

The sharp and unprecedented fall of starts might not have reached a bottom yet. In this economy-wide recession, weakness on the demand side is bound to persist, and we believe that supply will have to fall further, given also the great wave of foreclosures that is adding to the excess of supply in the market. I see starts falling another 20% from current levels and believe that home prices will not bottom out until the middle of 2010.


Labor Markets
With the continued credit crunch and significant cut-down in consumer and business spending, the monthly job losses will continue in the 400,000 to 500,000 and 300,000 to 400,000 range during the first two quarters of 2009 respectively, bringing the unemployment rate to 8% by mid-2009. The severe contraction in private demand until early 2010 will keep layoffs high and the unemployment rate elevated over 8%.

Economy-wide job cuts are expected, with big corporations and small enterprises, residential and commercial construction, financial services and manufacturing continuing to shed jobs at a strong pace. Moreover, with structural shifts in the economy since the last recession, job losses this time will be more severe in the service sector, including retail, business and professional services and leisure and hospitality. Unless the fiscal stimulus addresses the deficit problem for state and local government, job losses at the government level will also gain pace. In turn, income and job losses will further push up default and delinquency rates on mortgages, consumer loans and credit cards. Moreover, the loss of high-paying corporate and financial sector jobs will be a big negative for tax revenues over the next two years.

Layoffs are bound to continue thereafter as cost-cutting gains pace with the beginning of the (sluggish) recovery period in early 2010. Even as consumer demand might show some signs of recovery, firms, as in the past, will begin by hiring only part-time and temporary workers initially. The unemployment rate might peak at close to 9% in Q1 2010, almost two years after the recession began. However, the hiring freeze across industries that began in late 2007 will continue at least until 2010, causing discouraged workers to leave the work force and containing the extent of the spike in the unemployment rate. Further, the decline in labor utilization will add to the deflationary pressure in the economy. An aging labor force, lower capital spending and potential growth over the next few years might also result in lower productivity growth and an increase in the natural rate of unemployment.


Capital Expenditure
Firms have been drawing down inventories beginning in Q4 2008. As the slump in domestic and foreign demand and difficulty in accessing short-term credit persist over the next four quarters, business investment is bound to contract in double-digits throughout 2009. Industrial production, spending on equipment and durable goods will also remain in the red through 2009. Moreover, with a sluggish recovery in private demand even during 2010, firms will start building inventories and contemplate capital expenditure plans only at a slower pace.


Trade
Exports contraction that began in late 2008 will gain pace in 2009 as more and more emerging economies slip into slowdown following the G-7 countries. On the other hand, easing oil prices and secular downward trends in consumer spending and business investment will help imports to shrink. In fact, this might cause the trade deficit to contract in 1H 2009 since the contraction in imports might well exceed the decline in exports, thus containing any negative contribution of trade to GDP growth.


Dollar Outlook
The fate of the dollar in 2009 rests on the global growth outlook. After profit-taking on long dollar positions ends, and trading volumes pick up as investors return from their holidays, the dollar may temporarily recover its relative safe-haven status in H1 2009. Since markets have yet to fully appreciate the impact of the commodity slump and financial crisis on the rest of the world, risk appetite may collapse again on signs of a deeper- or longer than expected recession outside the U.S. Further de-leveraging of dollar-denominated liabilities could provide an additional boost to the dollar as a funding currency.

The bond-yield outlook could be a further source of strength: While the Fed is already at a zero interest rate policy, other central banks will cut rates further to stimulate growth, putting downward pressure on currencies like the euro.

Alternating with these upside risks to the dollar may be downside risks from 1) a supply crunch in commodities that lifts commodity prices and producers' economies, and 2) the inability of the market to absorb increased Treasury supply at low yields.

http://www.forbes.com/home/2009/01/07/recession-stimulus-spending-oped-cx_nr_0108roubini.html

by 저하늘넘어 | 2009/01/08 23:14 | Economy | 트랙백 | 덧글(0)

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